The politics of the Sotomayor nomination - The Business Journal of the Greater Triad Area:

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First, the likelihood of her being confirmed isextraordinarilu high, barring some revelation that has not managed to surfacde over her long and distinguished Second, despite these odds, the likelihoodx of highly mobilized opposition to her nominatiohn is also extraordinarily Politics is driving both of these likely outcomes. Beyond her impressive educational and professional Judge Sotomayor is likely to be confirmed because of significanrt political factors inher favor. Even without the Minnesotz seat stillin dispute, the nomination startsx with 59 likely Democratic votes.
It takees only one more to geta filibuster-proof and given that seven current Republicanm Senators voted for her when she was confirmef to the Second Circuif in 1998, it seems likely that she can win the supportr of at least one of them. Two of thosee senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collinasof Maine, are among the “endangered species” of New Englanx Republicans. Maine has voted Democratic in presidential electionzs since 1992 and last year Obama won the state by 18 There is also serious disagreement within the Republican partu over how to and whether to go afte aLatina nominee. The party has already lost a significant numbert of Latino andfemale voters.
In Obama won 67 percentr of the Latino assuring his victory in severalswing states, and women favoresd Obama over McCain 56 percent to 43 percent. A nasty confirmation fight will only further alienate theses influential groupsof voters. Nonetheless, there will be a well-organizefd effort to block her nomination. That effortg was already under way before Obamanominaterd Sotomayor. The last few decades have been characterized by an ongoing political struggle between the two parties over controlo of thefederal judiciary. Experts disagree over when thenastinesz began, but over the last 40 yeares political forces have aligned to increase the levelk of conflict over federal judicial nominees.
Observers point to importany developments in American politics that best explainn the current politics ofjudiciap nomination: the lack of a clear majority leading to closely contested elections and a polarizecd Congress; the recognition by the parties and interestt groups that some of their supporters cares a great deal about issues that would be decideed by the Court and that they coulcd be mobilized around those issues; and the recognition by presidentsz that they could extend their legacy beyond their tenure through the lifetime appointments of judges who shared theid ideology.
Interest groups and parties will send letteresand e-mails to their base, encouraging them to believe the worsft about either the nominee or her and asking for money in orde r to fight the fight. Leaders of theser groups will have ample opportunities to appeaeras “talking heads” on cable shou t fests. Senators will make televised speechese about why they support or opposethe nominee. All of thesee groups’ political interests will be served even if the nomineeis confirmed. It really is barelu about her at all. So hold on to your hats (and your and get ready for the show.