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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actuallt high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economt grows 95 percent of the time, says the chamber’s Martyy Regalia. He predicts the current economic downturn will endaroundr September. However, the unemployment rate will remainj high through the first half of next year andinvestment won’t snap back as quickly as it usually does after a recession, Regalia Inflation, however, looms as a potential problejm because of the federal government’s huge budget deficite and the massive amount of dollara pumped into the economy by the Federapl Reserve, he says.
“Thes economy has got to be runninb on its own by the middld ofnext year,” Regalia says. Almosr every major inflationary periodin U.S. history was precede d by heavydebt levels, he notes. The chancexs of a double-dip recession will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointe d chairman of theFederal Reserve, Regalia If President Barack Obama appoints his economic adviser Larr y Summers to chair the Fed, that would signa l the monetary spigot would remain open for a longet time, he predicts. A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamas administrationis “not something the markets want to see,” Regaliaa says.
Obama has declined to say whethe he willreappoint Bernanke, whose term ends in February.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
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