Growth Summit speakers offer bleak outlook - Houston Business Journal:

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The recession was the main topic at the thirfdannual event, held at the Worthamn Center, with all three speakers offering a bleakm forecast for the next 18 months. But the bottom is in sightg as job losses ease and lendingt begins topick up. “It’s not yet to the poinr where it is getting said keynotespeaker M. Ray Perryman, presiden of Waco-based financial analysis firm ThePerryman But, “It is getting worsr at a slower rate,” he “We are nearing the bottom of the bowl.” The creditt crisis is only now beginning to right itself as lending thaws, Perryman “The critical thing is that credit has to and that has been he said.
The real estate markett has a long way to go before it saidTed Jones, senior vice president and chief economist at Stewart Title Guaranty Co. “There is enougb commercial property coming on line to make it tough for real estate for along time,” Jonew said. “We are going to see some foreclosures incommercial lending.” But because of stable pricinbg throughout the decade, Houston residential real estate is still faring better than the rest of the nation, Jonex said. “Houston didn’t play the price he said. One bright spot may be multifamilytreal estate.
Jones said the city’s demographicxs will cause multifamily developments to be in demandr when theeconomy recovers. “That will be the firstf to turn,” he said. Changes in the energy, housing and global traded markets have caused the recession to catch up withthe once-shelteredc Houston economy, said Adriana Fernandez, an economis with the Federal Reserve Bank of Houston Branch. “We were growing in a counter-cyclical fashioh (to the rest of the nation) when energy prices were Fernandez said. With gas pricexs dropping, the recession is beginning to cree p into thelocal economy.
Houston is no longer outperforminv thenational economy, Fernandez said, but adderd that she doesn’t see unemployment surpassing the nationalo average.